Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will sign a joint defence agreement in Saudi Arabia on Friday

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will sign a joint defence agreement in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to regional sources with direct knowledge of the matter and Ankara-based sources.^[1][2][3]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was expected to travel to Saudi Arabia early Friday to be hosted by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrived in Jeddah on Thursday, according to the Ankara-based accounts.^[2]

Region on edge after Israeli-U.S. strikes on Iran

The timing coincides with what sources described as a deepening regional crisis and turmoil, with Gulf states coming under fire from Iran after Tehran was attacked by the United States and Israel.^[2][3]

The pact has been under negotiation since last year, described by sources in Ankara as a first of its kind trilateral framework. One Ankara-based source was quoted as saying the agreement will change the balance of power in the region and, if successfully implemented, will enhance the stability and security of people living in this part of the world.^[2]

What the pact would cover and what remains unresolved

According to the sources, the agreement would cover all aspects of defence cooperation among the three countries and would not alter or undermine any other alliance commitments the three may have.^[2]

Whether the final text includes a clause that would treat an attack on one country as an attack on all three remains unclear. The sources declined to confirm that element, though a second source said such a provision was likely while cautioning that final terms had yet to be confirmed. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already have a mutual defence deal, according to a separate report.^[1][2]

Three powers bringing different leverage

A trilateral agreement would link three of the region's largest states with distinct advantages: oil-rich Saudi Arabia, described as the Arab world's only G-20 economy and home to Mecca and Medina; Pakistan, described as the Muslim world's only nuclear-armed state; and Turkey, which straddles Asia and Europe and fields NATO's second-largest army. Both Islamabad and Ankara are emerging as major weapons manufacturers and exporters.^[2]

Pakistan has historically been close to both Saudi Arabia and Turkey, while Ankara and Riyadh have not always seen eye-to-eye. Erdogan backed popular protests after the Arab Spring that Riyadh viewed as a threat, the two sides battled in Libya a decade ago when Saudi Arabia and the UAE joined forces against Turkey, and they supported opposing positions on Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, before beginning to patch up ties around 2021.^[2]