Goldman Sachs Forecasts Brent Crude Could Exceed $120 a Barrel if Hormuz Disruptions Continue

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has issued a warning that Brent crude prices could jump to more than $120 a barrel if disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue. While the bank rejects the $120 mark as its baseline outlook, it treats the level as a realistic target under sustained geopolitical pressure. The advisory comes as Brent crude has already rallied, re‑ascending above $91 a barrel earlier this month after mounting concerns over regional tensions.^[1][2]

Market Surge Underway

Brent crude returned to the $91 range following a spike in speculation over possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The uptick follows a sustained period of volatility that has left traders wary of a supply tight‑turing scenario, and feeds into Goldman’s scenario analysis.^[2]

Goldman’s Price Projection

According to the bank’s model, the price could surge to $120 in or after the fourth quarter if interruption risks endure. Goldman stresses that the $120 threshold is not an expectation under its baseline case, but a plausible outcome if the conflict in key supply corridors remains unresolved.^[1][3]

Implications for Energy Markets

A rise to $120 per barrel would shift the global energy landscape, tightening the supply curve and intensifying the risk premium for commodity producers. The scenario also signals potential cost pressures for consumers and clarity about the durability of supply constraints in the pivotal Strait of Hormuz region.^[1][2][3]